Bongino Exit Odds Spike as Resignation Rumors Spread

Kalshi contracts imply a 65% chance FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino exits by the end of 2025 and a 93% chance he leaves before 2027. About two days earlier, the 2025 odds were just over 5%.

The jump followed a New York Times report saying Bongino discussed an imminent departure with a friend and was boxing up office belongings to ship to Florida. A Fox News report, citing two sources, said he is considering stepping down “within the next few weeks.”

The rumors arrive as Bongino and FBI Director Kash Patel face criticism over morale and leadership at the bureau. Bongino has also drawn scrutiny tied to the release of heavily redacted Jeffrey Epstein files and undisclosed meetings with a Ukrainian negotiator.

Politico’s Rachael Bade reported that Bongino angered the White House over how the Epstein materials were handled, with sources suggesting he “could be out” quickly. The New York Post reported on a 115-page assessment attributed to current and former FBI personnel that criticized Patel’s management and mocked Bongino, portraying the agency as rudderless.

Markets see Patel’s exit as less likely this year, pricing his 2025 departure at about 6%, but with higher longer-term risk: “out before 2027” contracts trade around 48%.

Kalshi bettors are also watching the cabinet. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is priced at 25% to be the first cabinet member to depart, ahead of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at 16%, amid criticism and a possible contempt probe tied to allegations she ignored a court order from Judge James E. Boasberg on flights of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador. For now, traders are betting volatility continues.