Gemini Gets CFTC Green Light to Launch US Prediction Markets

Gemini, the cryptocurrency platform founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has secured U.S. regulatory approval to launch prediction markets, opening the door for nationwide trading of event-based contracts through its affiliate, Gemini Titan LLC.

The approval comes after Gemini Titan was registered as a Designated Contract Market with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a status that lets it list regulated event contracts tied to outcomes across categories like economics, finance, politics, and sports. Gemini has signaled it will start with simple yes-or-no style markets, initially accessible on the web, with broader access expected to follow.

The move lands at a critical time for the company. Gemini went public in September after filing for an IPO earlier this year, but its filings show the business has been operating at a loss. In its most recent quarterly results, Gemini reported a $159.5 million loss, underscoring the pressure to expand into new, higher-margin products that can scale.

On an earnings call, Cameron Winklevoss framed prediction markets as a major frontier, comparing the moment to discovering Bitcoin in the early 2010s and arguing that markets can be built around almost any real-world event.

Gemini also used the announcement to praise Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham and President Donald Trump, pointing to a friendlier regulatory tone for crypto under the current administration. The Winklevoss twins previously donated Bitcoin to Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Gemini’s entry adds fuel to a broader industry push. Crypto.com already operates a regulated derivatives arm offering event contracts, Kraken has moved deeper into CFTC-regulated markets via an acquisition, and Coinbase has publicly discussed prediction markets as part of its drive to become an “everything exchange.”