Kalshi Fed Chair Odds Flip as Waller Surges and Warsh Drops

Kalshi’s market on President Donald Trump’s next Federal Reserve chair pick is swinging sharply as traders react to every new headline ahead of Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026. The ongoing friction between Trump and Powell has fueled speculation that a replacement could be named sooner than expected, adding fresh volatility to the “Fed Chair Nominee” contract.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett remains the narrow favorite, priced around 52 cents, and has led the market since Sept. 19. But the race behind him has shifted. Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor who served from 2006 to 2011, briefly surged after Trump comments to The Wall Street Journal were interpreted as supportive. When asked if Warsh was the top contender, Trump replied, “Yes, I think he is,” sparking a rapid move that pushed Warsh’s implied probability to nearly 49.4% on Tuesday. Earlier this year, Warsh also traded as high as 58 cents.

That spike didn’t last. After Hassett appeared on CBS’s Face the Nation and argued Trump “would have no weight” on Federal Open Market Committee rate decisions, Warsh slid back to roughly 23 cents.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has surged into contention, overtaking Warsh for second place. Waller traded near 4 cents as recently as Dec. 11, but has climbed to about 18 cents. Speaking at Yale School of Management, Waller suggested policy may still be “50 to 100 basis points off of neutral,” signaling he sees room for further cuts.

Kalshi’s related contracts also show shifting expectations around Powell’s future. The market pricing for Powell being removed before May 2026 sits near 15 cents, down from about 24.8 cents on Nov. 2. Separately, traders now imply roughly a 77% chance Powell will no longer be a Fed governor by August 2026, up from about 64 cents on Nov. 14.