Prediction Markets Are Choosing Kevin Hassett to Become The Next Fed Chair

President Donald Trump says he has already chosen the next Federal Reserve chair, and prediction markets suggest the contest may already be decided. Former White House economist Kevin Hassett has surged to the top of the odds, with traders giving him roughly a three-in-four chance of replacing current Fed chief Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Hassett, who led the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, is now widely viewed as the front-runner after reports that the former president’s advisers and allies consider him their preferred candidate. Trump confirmed over the weekend that he has decided on a nominee but declined to reveal the name, keeping markets and Washington guessing.

Publicly, Hassett has been cautious, saying he is honored to be mentioned but questioning whether media reports have the full story. He also pointed to the positive market reaction to Trump’s signals that a new Fed chair is coming soon, highlighting lower interest rates and a strong Treasury auction as signs investors welcome the shift. Supporters argue that a Hassett-led Fed could mean cheaper car loans, lower mortgage rates, and looser financial conditions for households.

On prediction platform Kalshi, contracts price Hassett’s chances at around the low-70% range, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh a distant second and current governor Christopher Waller trailing further behind. Rival platform Polymarket shows a similar picture, with Hassett dominating the field and other contenders priced in the low double or single digits.

Still, experts warn that prediction markets are not infallible. Past episodes, including mispriced Supreme Court picks, show that traders can latch onto a narrative and be wrong. Until Trump makes the announcement, Hassett remains the heavy favorite—but not the guaranteed winner.