Prediction Markets Captured Every Twist In The College Football Coaching Carousel

During Penn State’s hunt to replace fired coach James Franklin, Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz suddenly became the top “next coach” pick on Kalshi, briefly hitting a 43% implied chance on Nov. 19. Drinkwitz later said he never interviewed, calling the frenzy “speculation” after Missouri’s Nov. 29 finale. By Dec. 5, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell took the job, ending a search that looked less like due diligence and more like internet whispers.

That’s the new reality of the coaching carousel: prediction markets let fans legally bet on hiring rumors the way traders bet on stocks. Prices move with headlines, leaks, and sometimes nothing at all. Penn State’s market cycled through favorites—Nebraska’s Matt Rhule, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, Drinkwitz, James Madison’s Bob Chesney, and BYU’s Kalani Sitake—before settling on Campbell at the finish.

Other vacancies were wild, too. Lane Kiffin was simultaneously priced as a leading candidate for multiple SEC openings, while Florida ultimately hired Tulane’s Jon Sumrall. Michigan’s search became a stress test when Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer jumped from roughly 25% to near 39% during a shaky playoff start, then sank below 10% after a comeback win. Michigan later landed Kyle Whittingham after late-December momentum.

Researchers say accuracy improves when markets are liquid, but many coaching markets drew thin volume. Low liquidity makes prices easy to whip around with one big wager or a viral post, creating opportunities to hype a candidate, sell into the spike, and walk away.

With more companies entering prediction markets and federal oversight keeping them legal in many states, betting on coaching hires—and the chaos that comes with it—looks like a permanent part of college football for fans, bettors, schools everywhere.