Traders Still Back Trump Over Harris for 2028 Despite Term Limits

Kamala Harris is being floated as a 2028 comeback candidate, with The Daily Beast reporting the former vice president is “setting the stage” for another White House run. But on Kalshi’s 2028 presidential market, Harris is trading at 4% to win the presidency. President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally barred from being elected to a third term under the 22nd Amendment, is still slightly higher at 5%.

The market’s standout is Vice President J.D. Vance, listed as the 2028 favorite at 30%, far ahead of any other name.

Looking at party nominations tells a different story for Harris. A Big Data Poll highlighted by Newsweek shows Harris still leading the Democratic field with 31.1% support, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom (20.3%) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10%). Kalshi pricing is far less bullish: Harris is at 6% to win the Democratic nomination, well behind Newsom at 35%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is at 10%.

Republican nomination markets also favor Vance. Kalshi has him at 47% to win the GOP nod, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio next at 11%. Trump appears in that market at 4% despite his term-limit hurdle.

Why is Trump showing up at all? The third-term conversation has been kept alive by Trump allies and speculation. Reuters reported the Wall Street Journal’s account that Trump discussed a draft book with lawyer Alan Dershowitz exploring arguments around a potential third term. Kalshi even offers a contract putting the odds of Trump announcing a 2028 run at 20%.

For now, the message from traders is blunt: Vance is the early favorite, Newsom leads the Democratic nomination market, and Trump remains a headline-driven wildcard.